EPOP 2008 Programme
Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
2008 Annual Conference
12th - 14th September, 2008
Conference Programme
10.00-1.00pm – Pre-EPOP Course: European Election Study
Marcel van Egmond (University of Amsterdam)
Cees van der Eijk (University of Nottingham)
EPOP 2008
Friday 1.30-3.00pm
Session 1.1
Panel: Comparative Approaches to Electoral Reform
Chair: Professor David Farrell (University of Manchester)
Paper 1: Labour’s reluctance to reform the electoral system at Westminster - Thomas Lundberg (University Glasgow)
Paper 2: Prospective vs. Retrospective Strategic Motivations in Electoral Reforms –Jean-Benoit Pilet (Universite libre de Bruxelles)
Paper 3: The Politics of Electoral Reform: The State of Research – Gideon Rahat (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
Paper 4: Is there a trend towards greater proportionality in electoral systems in established democracies? – Alan Renwick (University of Oxford)
Session1.2
Panel: Valence and Issue Preferences
Chair: Professor Ed Fieldhouse (University of Manchester)
Paper 1: Performance Politics and the New Issue Agenda – Harold Clarke (University of Texas, Dallas), David Sanders (University of Essex), Marianne Stewart (University of Texas, Dallas) and Paul Whiteley (University of Essex)
Paper 2: Evaluation Bias and Issue Ownership: How Voters Evaluate Opposition and Governing Parties’ Competencies – Jane Green (University of Manchester) and Will Jennings, (LSE)
Paper 3: Valence and Position: Structuring Party Competition – Alexia Katsanidou (University of Essex)
Session 1.3
Panel: Age and Political Engagement
Chair: Dr Andrew Russell (University of Manchester)
Paper 1: Does Civic Education boost youth Turnout? A Canadian Natural
Experiment – Henry Milner (University of Montreal)
Paper 2: Becoming Democrat by Voting the Democrats: Examining the impact of vote on party identification among young voters and their parents – Elias Dinas (European University Institute, Florence)
Paper 3: Are Parties ‘old school’? An analysis of age group differences in party membership across Europe – Achim Goerres (University of Cologne)
Paper 4: Values In Context: A Comparative Analysis of Engagement. Kingsley Purdam and Mark Tranmer (University of Manchester)
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3.00-3.30pm – Break
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Friday 3.30-5.00pm
Session 2.1
Roundtable: Methodological Advances in Political Behaviour
Chair: Professor Peter John (University of Manchester)
Paper 1: Harold Clarke (University of Texas, Dallas)
Paper 2: Donald Green (Yale University)
Paper 3: Patrick Sturgis (University of Southampton)
Paper 4: Ray Duch (Nuffield College, University of Oxford)
Discussant: André Blais (University of Montreal)
Session 2.2
Panel: Women 1 - Gender, Parties and Office
Chair: Dr Lisa Harrison (UWE)
Paper 1: The Feminization of the Conservative Party: Party Member views – Sarah Childs (University of Bristol) and Paul Webb (University of Sussex)
Paper 2: The Liberal Democrats and the substantive representation of women – Elizabeth Evans (Goldsmiths, University of London)
Paper 3: Second among unequals? A study of whether France’s “quota women” are up to the job – Rainbow Murray (Queen Mary, University of London)
Paper 4: Zapatero, Zippers, Zebras and UK Local Government: Are quotas needed to redress a century of women’s under-representation - Chris Game (University of Birmingham)
Session 2.3
Panel: Europe
Chair: Dr Laura Morales (University of Manchester)
Paper 1: European Integration and the balance of power within national political parties – Elisabeth Carter (Keele University) and Thomas Poguntke (Ruhr University Bochum)
Paper 2: Close Friends and Estranged Folks Within the European Centre-Right Bloc – Iannis Konstantinidis (University of Macedonia)
Paper 3: The Electoral Consequences of Social Pacts in Western Europe, 1980-2006 – Kerstin Hamaan (University of Central Florida), Alexia Katsanidou (University of Essex), John Kelly (Birkbeck, University of London)
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Friday 5.00-5.30pm
“Journal Rankings in Comparative Perspective: A Report on a Survey Of American, Canadian and British Political Scientists”
Chair: Professor Ron Johnston (University of Bristol)
James C. Garand (Louisiana State University)
Michael Giles (Emory University)
André Blais (University of Montreal)
Iain McLean (Oxford University)
Friday 5.00 – 6.30pm: Cockcroft Theatre
Comparative Study of Citizen Politics: Measuring and Understanding Voter Mobilisation in the Cross-National Context
Chair: Professor Rachel Gibson (University of Manchester)
Paper 1: ' The Comparative Studies of Electoral Systems Project: Past, Present and Future' - Ian McAllister (Australian National University)
Paper 2: ' Measuring citizen orientations to political organizations and institutions in Comparative Survey Research' - Cees van der Eijk (University of Nottingham) and Michael Marsh (Trinity College, Dublin)
Paper 3: ' Mobilizing Political Engagement and Reducing Inequalities in Diverse Societies' - Jeffrey Karp and Susan Banducci (University of Exeter)
Paper 4: ' Making a Difference? Coalition and Single-Party Governments, Public Perceptions, and Turnout'- Jack Vowles (University of Exeter)
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Friday 6.30pm – BES: Review/2010 BES
Harold Clarke (University of Texas, Dallas)
David Sanders (University of Essex)
Marianne Stewart (University of Texas, Dallas)
Paul Whiteley (University of Essex)
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8.00pm – Friday Dinner
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Saturday 9.15-10.45am
Session 3.1
Panel: Political Discussion and Political Deliberation in a Comparative Perspective
Chair: Dr Laura Morales (ISC, University of Manchester)
Paper 1: What political discussion means and how do French and the (French speaking) Belgian deal with it – Sophie Duchesne and Florence Hegel (CEVIPOF, CNRS, France)
Paper 2: The impact of everyday political talk on involvement, knowledge and informed voting – Gabor Toka (CEU, Hungary & University of Oxford)
Paper 3: Booming diversity in deliberative democracy: An overview of normative concepts and empirical findings – Andre Baechtiger (University of Bern, Switzerland)
Paper 4: Voters’ political conversations during the 2005 German Parliamentary Election Campaign – Rudiger Schmitt-Beck & Thorsten Faas (University of Duisberg-Essen, Germany)
Session 3.2
Panel: Ballot Paper design and Ballot photographs
Chair: Professor Neil Collins (University College Cork)
Paper 1: Ballot-paper photographs and multi-member constituencies: The potential impact of candidate appearance in Scottish STV elections – Robert Johns and Mark Shephard (University of Strathclyde)
Paper 2: Beauty in the eye of the voter - Fiona Buckley and Theresa Reidy (University College Cork)
Paper 3: Ballot photographs as cues in low information elections – Susan Banducci and Jeffery Karp (University of Exeter); Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher (University of Plymouth)
Session 3.3
Panel: Partisan Dynamics/Partisanship
Chair: Dr Jane Green (University of Manchester)
Paper 1: “Measuring Partisan Stability and Change using Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Models” – Thomas Scotto (University of Essex)
Paper 2: A reference group theory of partisan bias: the competing influences of party identity and other social identities – Maria Sobloweska (University of Oxford)
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10.45-11.15am – Break
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Saturday 11.15-12.45pm
Session 4.1
Panel: Measuring Bias in Election Results
Chair: Professor Charles Pattie (University of Sheffield)
Paper 1: A method for measuring and decomposing electoral bias for the three party case – Galina Borisyuk (University of Plymouth), Michael Thrasher (University of Plymouth), Ron Johnston (University of Bristol) and Colin Rallings (University of Plymouth)
Paper 2: Measuring and decomposing electoral bias in an AV electoral system: elections to the Australian House of Representatives – Ron Johnston (University of Bristol) and Jim Forrest (Macquarie University, Sydney)
Paper 3: Disproportionality between votes, seats and cabinet portfolios in 16 Parliamentary Democracies – Adrian Blau (University of Manchester)
Paper 4: The growth of “effective competition space” in British and Indian post-war general elections: How small parties change the electoral playing field for all parties – Patrick Dunleavy and Rekha Diwakar (London School of Economics)
Session 4.2
Panel: Competing Cleavages
Chair: Dr Maria Sobloweska (University of Oxford)
Paper 1: Structural Change, Party Strategy and Cleavage Evolution in Britain, 1964-2006 – Geoffrey Evans and James Tilley (University of Oxford)
Paper 2: Measuring Ethnic Political Cleavages in African Democracies – Nick Cheeseman (University of Oxford) and Rob Ford (University of Manchester)
Paper 3: Evaluating Labour: Social Mobility and Class Inequalities under Blair and Brown – Fiona Devine and Yaojun Li (University of Manchester)
Session 4.3
Panel: Public Opinion and Forecasting
Chair: Dr Andrew Russell (University of Manchester)
Paper 1: Improving Election Forecasting in the United Kingdom – Michael Lewis-Beck (University of Iowa), Richard Nadeau (University of Montreal) and Éric Bélanger (McGill University)
Paper 2: Segmented Responsiveness? Homogeneity and Heterogeneity in Public Opinion – Stuart Soroka (McGill University) and Christopher Wlezien (Temple University)
Paper 3: "Political Representation in Britain: A Dynamic Left-Right Approach"– Armèn Hakhverdian (Nuffield College, Oxford)
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12.45-2.00pm – Lunch
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Saturday 2.00-3.30pm
Session 5.1
Panel: Online/Internet
Chair: Dr Robert Ford (University of Manchester)
Paper 1: It was ‘YouTube’ What Won it?: Campaigning Online in the Australian 2007 Federal Election – Ian McAllister (ANU) and Rachel Gibson (University of Manchester)
Paper 2: Internet surveys and hard-to-reach groups: an analysis of mode effects – Rosie Campbell (Birkbeck, University of London) and Kristi Winters (University of Essex)
Paper 3: Do web-based voting advice applications influence the direction and quality of vote decisions? – Outi Ruusuvirta (London School of Economics) and Martin Rosema (University of Twente)
Session 5.2
Panel: Electoral Reform during Democratic Consolidation: Cases from Central and Eastern Europe
Chair: Dr Alan Renwick (University of Oxford)
Paper 1: Electoral Reform and Electoral System effects in Lithuania – Terry Clark (Creighton University) and Zilvinas Martinaitis (Vilnuis University)
Paper 2: Much ado about nothing: Electoral reform in Slovenia – Danica Fink-Hafner (University of Ljubljana)
Paper 3: Electoral Reform debates in Poland – Frances Millard (University of Essex)
Paper 4: Information, Interests and Ideas in Electoral System Reform: Romania in Comparative Perspective – Marina Popescu (University College London)
Session 5.3
Panel: Turnout
Chair: Professor Ed Fieldhouse (University of Manchester)
Paper 1: Globalization and the Turnout Decline in Advanced Industrialized Democracies, 1960-2000 – John Marshall and Stephen D. Fisher (University of Oxford)
Paper 2: Region and primary political communities: individual-level predictors of turnout in sub-state elections – Ailsa Henderson and Nicola McEwen (University of Edinburgh)
Paper 3: The effect of compulsory voting on turnout and equality: A cross-national comparison – Ellen Quintelier, Sofie Mariën and Marc Hooghe (University of Leuven)
Paper 4: Process evaluations and political disengagement: The immediate impact of the ‘rejected ballots fiasco’ in Scotland 2007 – Christopher Carman and Robert Johns (University of Strathclyde)
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3.30-4.00pm – Break
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Saturday 4.00-5.30pm
Session 6.1
Panel: Voter Behaviour
Chair: Dr David Cutts (University of Manchester)
Paper 1: Exit, Voice, and Cyclicality: Testing the Micro-Logic of Second-Order Elections Theory - Till Weber (European University Institute)
Paper 2: Comparison of methods for the estimation of voter transition rates
Ioannis Andreadis and Theodore Chadjipadelis (Aristotle University of Thessalonki)
Paper 3: Political Cynicism and Electoral Choice - Martin Rosema (University of Twente) and Aida Paskeviciute (University of Essex)
Paper 4: Parties and Voters: Political Congruence across Europe – Ana Maria Belchoir (CIES-ISCTE, University of Lisbon)
Session 6.2
Panel: Trust and Corruption
Chair: Professor Phil Cowley (University of Nottingham)
Paper 1: Does one Trust (Model) Fit All? Linking Theory and Empirics – Justin Fisher (Brunel University), Jennifer van Heerde (University College London) and Andrew Tucker (University College London)
Paper 2: Political Community and Trust in Politics – Lauren McLaren (University of Nottingham)
Paper 3: The Experience and Perception of Political Corruption: A Structural Equation Model with Russian Survey Data – William Mishler (University of Arizona) and Richard Rose (University of Aberdeen
Session 6.3
Panel: New Electoral Systems in Scotland
Chair: James Mitchell
Paper 1: How did they vote? Voters’ use of the STV ballot paper in the 2007 local elections – John Curtice (University of Strathclyde) and Michael Marsh (Trinity College, Dublin)
Paper 2: Switch Voting in the AMS (MMP) Elections to the Scottish Parliament – James Gilmour
Paper 3: Voter Reactions to a Preferential Ballot: The 2007 Scottish Local Elections – David Denver (University of Lancaster), Alistair Clark (Queens University, Belfast) and Lynn Bennie (University of Aberdeen)
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Saturday 5.45-7.00pm – Roundtable (US Elections)
Does the 2008 presidential electionmark a watershed in US politics?
Robin Kolodny (Temple University)
Donald Green (Yale University)
Christopher Wlezien (Temple University)
Michael Lewis-Beck (University of Iowa)
Drinks Reception 7.00pm: Sponsored by the Institute of Social Change (ISC); Department of Politics (School of Social Sciences); Institute for Political and Economic Governance (IPEG)
Saturday 7.45pm – EPOP Annual Dinner
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Sunday 9.15-10.45am
Session 7.1
Panel: Women 2: Gender Voting Preferences
Chair: Elizabeth Evans (Goldsmiths, University of London)
Paper 1: Comparing American and British gender gap theories with British data – Kristi Winters (University of Essex)
Paper 2: A right royal mess: why did the French say ‘non’ to the opportunity of having a women president? – Rainbow Murray (Queen Mary, University of London) and Shelia Perry (University of Nottingham)
Paper 3: Do women vote for women - Rosie Campbell (Birkbeck, University of London) and David Cutts (University of Manchester)
Paper 4: My heart says one thing but my head says another’? Sex and the psychology of partisanship in Britain - Rob Johns (University of Strathclyde), Kristi Winters (University of Essex) and Rosie Campbell (Birkbeck, University of London)
Session 7.2
Panel: Party Democracy
Chair: Dr Adrian Blau (University of Manchester)
Paper 1: “Who Selects the Party Leader? A Cross-National Analysis” – William Cross (Carleton University) and André Blais (University of Montreal)
Paper 2: Democracy and Political Parties: On the Uneasy Relationship between Participation, Competition and Representation – Reuven Y. Hazan (Hebrew University of Jerusalem), Gideon Rahat (Hebrew University of Jerusalem) and Richard Katz (John Hopkins, University of Baltimore)
Paper 3: Constitutionalizing party democracy: The constitutive juridification of political parties in post-war Europe – Ingrid van Biezen (University of Birmingham)
Session 7.3
Panel: Ethnicity and Immigration
Chair: Dr Robert Ford (University of Manchester)
Paper 1: Social capital and neighbourhood composition in England. - Does diversity damage social capital? Edward Fieldhouse and David Cutts (University of Manchester)
Paper 2: The Institutionalisation of immigration as an electoral issue: individual and contextual determinants – Sergi Pardos-Prado (European University Institute, Florence)
Paper 3: The Cultural Basis of Anti-Immigrant Sentiment: Testing
An “Assimilationisit Threat” Scale – Anthony Mughan (Ohio State University)
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10.45-11.15am – Break
Sunday 11.15-12.45pm
Session 8.1
Panel: Media
Chair: Professor Rachel Gibson (University of Manchester)
Paper 1: The opinionated British press and their influence on political attitudes during the 2005 UK Election Campaign – Heinz Brandenburg (University of Aberdeen) and Marcel van Egmond (University of Amsterdam)
Paper 2: Testing the connection between negativity and information: Evidence from presidential and local elections in Taiwan – Jonathan Sullivan (University of Nottingham)
Session 8.2
Panel: British Politics
Chair: Dr Sarah Childs (University of Bristol)
Paper 1: Have the Tories got religion? – Tim Bale (University of Sussex)
Paper 2: Changing the guard or moving the deckchairs: political change and performance change in English Local Government – George Boyne (Cardiff University), Oliver James (University of Essex), Peter John (University of Manchester) and Nicolai Petrovsky (Cardiff University)
Paper 3: Are the Tories Mad? Rationality, Power and Party Strategy – Rob McIlveen (University of Sheffield)
Session 8.3
Panel: Post-Devolution Britain
Chair: Professor David Denver (University of Lancaster)
Paper 1: Building Nationalist Success? The Scottish Nationalist Party at the Grassroots in the 2003 and 2007 Scottish Parliament Elections – Alistair Clark (Queens University, Belfast)
Paper 2: Who are the SNP member? James Mitchell (University of Strathclyde), Lynn Bennie (University of Aberdeen) and Robert Johns (University of Strathclyde)
Paper 3: Unionist Devolutionism: Devolution as an Exercise in Political Legitimation – Richard Wyn Jones and Roger Scully (Aberystwyth University)